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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  September 25, 2012 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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facebook because mark zuckerberg was a cool dig. next one, buy nike because of a new endorsement deal. do we have one more? buy mattel, they make the magic eight-ball, they make the right calls. back to headquarters, michelle and "fast money halftime." welcome to "fast money halftime report." all major averages higher by 36 points on dow. 135 95. s&p higher by almost four. nasdaq higher by 9 1/2, 3,170. here's what we are following on the "halftime" show. the battle of the tech titans. apple losing some ground as google, it's google surging to a fresh record. which of these two stocks is
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better for your portfolio right now? housing, hangover. is the party coming to an end for home builder stocks? our top story, the tug of war between the bulls and bears. bulls winning as consumer confidence surging to a seven-month high. much better than expected numbers. so, should investor confidence be high right now, too? we've got ken fisher of fisher investment with the bull case. and then later in the show, bob rodriguez with the bear case. let's hear from our traders right here in studio. guy, josh brown, and mike mur y murphy. m.m., how high is your confidence? >> it's pretty high. i think the market has been thrown a lot of reasons to pull back but it's been holding its own. the market has been holding key pull-back levels. i believe we're going to get up to that 1475 level. if we break above that, i think the s&p just wants to get near
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1500. >> mr. brown, do you agree? >> well, i mean, it's really hard to fight the strength. what's interesting is it's pretty broad-based. a couple of notable areas that aren't participating, but a couple. most of what's happening is working. i think what's interesting is clearly when you see numbers like we saw this morning on consumer confidence, the conference board, et cetera, most people really are not worried about what we're worried about here on wall street. most people don't care about europe or care about china. so long as their home price is okay, they have a job, confidence seems to be there. and i think that's filtering through to u.s. equities right now. >> guy? >> hello. >> for me, consumer confidence is functioning where the stock market is. i think people have enjoyed, by and large, four years of effectively an uninterrupted move higher. if the market is higher, people feel better. it's that simple. it doesn't matter why we're here. here's where we are. we're having a conversation about whether it's built in sand or not, but i've said is for a while, the market doesn't give you this long to sell the highs.
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1460, so i think the pain trade continues to be toward the upside. people will fight this for all different reasons we can discuss, but sometimes you just got to go with the tape and the tape seems to point higher. >> does the tape seem to point higher? >> indeed it does. our friend dougy disagrees with me but jim cramer -- >> at least somebody does. when everybody agrees, i get nervous. >> i believe you're seeing a chase for performance. we're at the end of a quarter. this month has been a spectacular month for folks long equities and a horrible month on the other side, folks short equities. am i surprised people are chasing here? dougy points out things like, well, leon cooperman, he mentions two or three folks doing extraordinarily well, but there are a whole bunch of hedge funds, some 5,000 or 6,000 of them that are chasing and not doing that well. i'm not saying they just throw the playbook out the window and they don't give a darn about
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their customers or their own capital that may be in their hedge funds but i know they're chasing for performance. a lot of our clients tell us that every day and they're looking for that alpha. >> let's talk to another believer here. let's welcome ken fisher, ceo of fisher investment, managing $44 billion, for his take on how to invest in this market. you're a bull here, ken, right? explain why. >> basically we still have a fair amount of skepticism, as john temple ton famously said, bull markets grow on skepticism, die on euphoria. we clearly haven't gotten past the skepticism phase. people are optimistic about their own lives but skeptical about everything else. and, therefore, we're going to move from that skepticism eventually to some form of optimism or lack of skepticism, and that means people who haven't been in the market will get in. they will capitulate and push
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the market higher. >> do you have a time in mind or wait for the signals to tell you that change has happened? >> this year we started a process where very large stocks started outperforming. usually that happens just 40% to 60% through the way of the bull market. i think we're halfway through the bull market and we have several years fully to run. >> the comments we hear out of federal express, caterpillar, norfolk southern, intel, the market looks past those and wants to believe the fed with the backstop will allow these prices to go higher. i'm a believer this rally has been built on a very accommodative fed and not the pillars it needs to be. does that concern you at all? or does it not matter? >> you and i disagree. i think the fed has been absolutely stupid the whole time. that's neither here for their. the fact of the matter year over
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year comparisons always get tougher and tougher to do as bull markets and economic expansions continue to do. in the beginning they'd bounce off the bottom easily as you have basel recessionary levels. later it gets harder and harder and that earning consistency of the very biggest and the best becomes more and more valuable and concentrates in fewer and fewer stocks. normally in bull markets as they run, fewer and fewer stocks beat the markets. more and more -- >> what would those stocks be? this is a late stage -- >> the very, very biggest ones. the ones that have market cap bigger than the dollar-weighted cap of the market which is literally over 80 billion u.s. dollars. >> josh brown. i'm a fellow wealth manager. i'm curious as to what your thoughts are when you hear people talk about hedge funds chasing for performance. i know at your shop you're dealing with individual
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investors. do you hear the same kind of ar door to get into stocks and get more heavily invested now because there was so much fighting of the tape for so many years? >> not at all. actually, my firm is partly high net worth and partly institutional. be that as it may, i still see in the investor universe institutional and high net worth skepticism. and i don't see the chasing function this. the chasing function in hedge funds is become they're typically pickers. as you move into this world, it gets harder and harder to pick successfully. >> intel, pepsi, exxon, santa e fe, bhb, billiton, your top five picks. laggards is most of them. exxonmobil, what will make that stock move? >> as you move through the back part of a bull market, the mega caps take over. those five, while you say they're my favorite, i give those as examples of mega cap. you can own any half of the. 0 largest stocks right now and
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over the next two years you out to beat the market. any half. i did that through the later '90s and people thought i was stupid because they wanted to pick exciting stocks. the fact of the matter is, normally in the back of bull markets, any half of the stocks that are bigger than the dollar-weighted average cap of the market, beat the market. it's a real simple game. and stock-picking mostly works against you. >> ken, looking at intel, it has been a laggard, a qualcomm or apple, do you think intel is the best place? i think this rally has a lot of legs to go. i would rather find a name that has more beta, a broadcom or qualcomm. can you explain why you think intel will outperform those? >> you're looking for beta, which is you're looking to pick. i'd argue against picking and argue for size. as you move forward, the very biggest stocks play. so apple, yes. google, yes. when you look at intel, yes. as you move down, you can find very high beta stocks.
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beta is actually not a forward predictor. >> and apple at this point you would still be confident, apple, simply based on this very, very simple premise you that that it's big? >> except you want to have a fairly diverse universe much big stocks within those 70 biggest stocks. if you want to own 20 of them, fine. if you want to own 30 of them, fine. if you pick three, you're stock-picking. >> ken, great to have you. president obama due to address the clinton global initiative annual meeting at any moment. he is in new york city. we're going to take a little bit of that and talk to amon javers. this is the big event that coincides. not to be new york centric, the traffic is horrific with all the security of all the important people in town. but as soon as he begins addressing that, we'll have amon javers let us know exactly what he's talking about. if you're confused, yes, the president did address the u.n. earlier this morning. we already covered that.
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we'll also tell you what he's saying at clinton global initiative. the specs on the home builder rally, why it may not be up to code. don't call bob rodriguez a bull, why he thinks fed policies are one of the biggest threats facing the nation. first the battle of the tech titans. what's the best bet for your portfolio, apple or google. ken fisher said either one but we'll get specifics as google hits another record high.
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welcome back to "the fast money halftime report." let's talk about ken fisher behind his back. his biggest picks -- basically, he said, size matters. late stage rally, just go big. five examples. he said, you can do anything over 80 billion. what do you think of that? >> i think that's definitely oversimplifying things a little
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bit. looking at intel, the point i was trying to get to with ken, looking at intel, broadcom or qualcomm, i think intel has missed almost an entire cycle. a lot of people talk about the value because of the dividend that's out there. but intel is something, just like the s&p has been working. intel has not been working recently. so, i'm not looking to jump in there just because of its overall size. you know, research in motion was a very large company not too long ago also. i would rather be in what's working at this stage of the market versus trying to pick something just because of its size. >> how would you -- >> i like sanofi, 4% dividend, trading five-year high and still relatively reasonably high. >> do you like it because it's big? >> that's -- i mean, you really want to talk about that? >> josh brown -- >> we can do an entire show about that. >> i'm not going to bail you out of that. >> i asked a question. >> what if i -- what do you think of those five stocks? >> hey, well, first, i would
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say, mike, you're 100% right when you talk about you want big. qualcomm is the same size as intel. why not pick the one where the chart looks better and they're in the right sector, tablets versus pc. as far as the overall theme, i agree bigger is better. it shouldn't be the only data point you're making decisions based on. there are lots of big companies that are not going to do well going forward. obviously, i agree with guy that sanofi is a great pick. i like the whole health care sector. it's been overweight all year. third best performing sector on the whole s&p. we think it takes pole position between now and december. >> jon? >> again, just without putting the words in his mouth, he said these were examples of those big mega caps he's talking about, not necessarily just these five. he did say stocks over $80 billion in market cap, i mean, i was looking at his bhp billiton one, josh, you're not fond of that, but a like a lot of the
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miners at this level because i don't think the break between china and the eurozone is going to be as severe. i think the eurozone is staying together -- >> even in light of caterpillar? >> it's a 12 multiple, though. that stock doesn't trade at a 12 multiple. the downtrend is vicious. i love the company. i love caterpillar, too. but why own it when they're under distribution? i get the thesis these are oversold but clearly the market is telling you, not quite yet. >> let's move on from the smoke stack stocks to the battle of the technology titans, which also fit into ken fisher's big, bad and better. google executive chairman eric schmidt says he's made no move to provide google maps for the iphone 5 after it was dropped. as apple trades lower for a second day, google is hitting an all-time high. if you look at the last month, google has outperformed, even though year to date apple has
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outperformed. bottom line, which is the better stock to own? mike murphy. >> i think i would rather own apple. the main reason is because of the entire build-up, the entire ecosystem. my kids in school get ipads, they have maces at home, they have -- they'll be getting -- when they're old enough -- iphones, ipads. the ecosystem is why i like apple. ail throw this out there. apple right now is still moving on what steve jobs put together. when you get out, a few more years, supposedly steve jobs had a five-year plan. two years, three years down the road, i think then it's going to be really interesting to see what type of innovation apple can put out there. for right now, long apple. >> like the soviet union, the five-year plan. guy, what would you do here? i look at google. it's not moved clearly as much as apple. why not go for -- would that be a valuation play? >> so, if you flew from mars, today's the first day here, what stock do you pick?
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i go google because i think it has tremendous movement behind it. mark ma hhaney, $850 price targ on it. while i think apple can trade sideways for a while to sortly higher, i think google is in that unabated move further so i say goog. >> this two-day pullback have you shaking in your boots? >> the only reason they missed anybody's imaginary sales target is because there's not enough of what they need to build these things. i like both. i know that's not the answer you're looking for. these are both stocks that could easily get to 1,000 over a reasonable period of time. >> josh, josh, josh, women need commitment. which one? pick. >> well, listen, if your time frame is short, i'll probably tell you google has more momentum. >> jon? >> apple, absolutely. no shock there from me. but we're getting data points at the end of the week, fort first
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week of actual sales. we have 22 more countries coming online for the iphone 5. and then we'll have an announcement shortly thereafter. i think this is the one you want to buy on the pullbacks. we called for it last week. i think we can see 674, 666, in that range. i think that's where you load it up. >> break the tie? >> me? >> yeah. why not? >> michelle, what do you like? >> forget it. and men don't like women who hesitate. move on. finding friends for facebook stock hasn't been easy. i have a joke for you after the show. >> i'm sure you do. >> take a look at what media mogul barry diller had to say about facebook earlier on "squawk box." >> facebook is doing everything right. because what they are doing is working to get theme to use their site and use it more.
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i would absolutely buy facebook now. >> slim shady, do you listen barry diller's investment advice? do you buy facebook now because of their desire to make their site better. >> we've been trading facebook and it's been working pretty well for us but we have no position right now. the way we've been looking at facebook is buying it right after a news event where the stock gets dropped down. right here in the 20, 21 range after it pulled back from 23, i would like to see it get back down a little lower for a trade down through 20 and then look to buy. right now, no position on facebook. >> josh brown, you following diller into this deal? >> no way. that's a data-freeway of saying it's a big site. look, finding more users, they have 900 million users. where are they going to find the rest? in all their star systems? i think this is a situation where it's noisy and newsy and a headline can come out and it can go up or down 9, 10% almost every other day. that's way too much activity for me. i'm not interested in the whole story. >> let's trade diller, dr. j., what about ic interactive.
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>> he's a brilliant guy -- >> i knew there was a but, the way you said it. >> i have a lot of respect for the fact that he said they couldn't be doing anything better. oh, my god. the stock is upside down, half the price of the ipo, just above that. they've been doing almost nothing right, michelle. the only good thing they did is was tech crunch disrupt when they addressed search a little. until they put something solid on the table, have i to take exception with mr. diller. i then question the rest of what he's doing if he thinks these guys are doing so well. i think that's a blatant suck-up to zuckerberg to try to get interactive to have a little more sway on the facebook guys. >> wow. that is so cynical. >> interactive just did a deal. they bought about.com. that could be interesting. look at what they're paying for aol right now on an enterprise
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ebat level. maybe content on the web is better than it was a year ago. ic is three points away from a multi-year high. >> they're getting paid for it where facebook isn't. >> it might be a better trade than facebook, frankly. >> it is a better trade than facebook, absolutely. coming up, the top three trades. and then cracks in the foundation of the home builder rally. what is behind a new downgrade on the sector today? sometimes investing opportunities are hard to spot. you have to dig a little. fidelity's etf market tracker shows you the big picture on how different asset classes are performing, and it lets you go in for a closer look at areas within a class or sector that may be bucking a larger trend. i'm stephen hett of fidelity investments. the etf market tracker is one more innovative reason
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here are "halftime's" top three trade. barnes & noble watching a nook services, letting them watch movies and of it shows on their devices. do you buy it? >> no. three things strike me. they should rename it, nook has bag connotations. >> it's a nook, you curl up and read. >> have you done that? 30% short in the stock. what they should do, change
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their business plan. i've said it a million times. charge admission to the folks that come in there and loitering for seven hours and drink cranberry juice. that's a tremendous business plan. i would buy the stock if they did that. >> staples falling after the company said it's speeding up closure of european and u.s. stores to invest more in mobile and online. mike, how long before the democrats blame romney, even bush for that? >> wasn't their doing. back to staples. i think this news was out already and when it was announced earlier, the stock had a positive reaction, trading higher premarket. i've been long the name in the past but seems like staples is desperate, trying to speed something up and i wouldn't want to try to catch this stock down here. >> the s&p health care sector, all-him tie, sixth consecutive session. time to get in here? >> we're long. we're staying in there. this is the secular bull market trends. think about the demographics involved here, from the u.s. to
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japan. you're talking about a generation that's going to spend the next 20 years essentially trying to live forever and replacing every body part they have. >> i was just thinking that. knee replacements -- >> all of it. you get in this sector, you could buy the etf xlv, long. j & j, medtronic, insurance companies, everything is in here. >> the mother of all bull moves for the health care sector. home builders still a big move. kb home, paulty, is the rally overheating? let's bring in kim, who downgraded home builders today. how does it feel, steven, the index is still up even with the downgrade. why are all the people buying today wrong? >> well, i don't think they're necessarily wrong. the case we were making actually in our port was that the u.s. housing market was actually going to continue to roll along. and, in fact, because we think
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we see supply constraints starting to develop, we think home price appreciation will exceed what most people think. the problem is when you get this kind of good news filtering into people's thinking on stocks, the home building where you don't have market cap, the best names get picked off early and valuations get pushed up to levels where they're frankly probably pretty full right now. >> so, limited upside is the -- >> exactly. 15 tight percent upside is not big enough for a group like home builders which are as volatile as they are. we baked in a bullish forecast for u.s. housing industrywide. you only get 15% upside for the high quality names. as a result, we think you should move to names like kb or paulty, which haven't moved -- which leave more room to the upside. >> guys? >> yeah, i would kind of push back on that a little bit. we look -- our two favorite names in the space and have been, toll and lennar because we think they're the best quality names out there.
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hi a question regarding the deferred tax credits because when you -- i was wondering if you use those in your model? if you do, i guess think -- i get around 1.4 times book and we could push up to 1.8, 1.9. i think toll and lenar have 30%, 35% upside from current levels. >> yeah. we do include the deferred tax assets. that's something if you look on a price to book basis, toll brothers is trading at about two times an adjusted price to book basis if you add that deferred tax asset back. unfortunately, two times book value is where top quality builders do generally top out. we think you need to move to names like kb or pulte. if you add them back, kb and pulte are still in the ones. but lennar and horton and --
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>> did he make you pull back? >> yes. de. if you look back in 2001 and back in the late '80s when you had a major correction in the housing sector, i think if you look back, they traded up to just about 2.5 times. i think rather -- i'm sticking with the value here because i think the kbs -- we've traded the kbs and even the hub manians off low earnings and they did phenomenal on earnings. the way we're looking at home builders and have since the beginning of the year is based on order. you look at the backlog of orders that came out of lennar was up over 40% versus a kb that was about 3.4, 3.6% gain. so, i think you still get more bang for the buck in the tolls and lennars. >> i think stephen had it exactly right. kudos for you on the call on the home builders. all he's doing is saying i'm taking some off the table because the run has been so fierce. i don't have a problem with that. he didn't take them to a sell.
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target is up 10%, 15%. nice call, stephen. i don't disagree with the call at all. >> i agree. >> there's no way to call these things cheap, so the question is, how much more room is left and is it worth how volatile these stocks are? that's the right thing to do is to say, okay, we'll back off. >> mike murphy isn't going to lose a lot of money in those positions, right? just not the most optimal use of his money? >> absolutely. what we've been saying since the beginning of the year, we have been pushing these things and i've been telling people, buy toll, buy lennar. god forbid you buy a builder that has company-specific issue come up and you couldn't participate in the rally. kb home, has had operation am challenges, is actually up the least among builders that i cover. so, we actually think that that name is now the name to rotate into. now that all the quality names we -- >> even though it's up 120 -- even though it's up 121% year to
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date? >> that's what happens with home builders. that's the home builder we cover up the least, believe it or not. pulte is up almost 300%, believe it or not. >> stephen, thanks much. >> you're very welcome. president obama about to address the clinton global initiative here in midtown mat hann manhattan. you see president clinton, his huge philanthropic effort making changes around the world, health care in africa. amon javers will be going over the comments, including what he said earlier at the u.n. >> reporter: the president will talk about scourage of human trafficking and he'll have a new
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initiative for contractors overseas to have new rules and internal compliance to prevent human trafficking around the world. the political subtext is watching this man, bill clinton, introducing barack obama. the relationship between those two, so tense and fraught back in 2008. politically much improved here in 2012, even mitt romney acknowledged that earlier in his remarks to the clinton global initiative, saying an introduction by bill clinton alone is probably worth a bump in the polls, even for mitt romney. a political subtext to an important topic. >> do you think president obama was upset that bill clinton allowed mitt romney to speak? >> reporter: if he does, he'll keep it quiet. he needs bill clinton. bill clinton came through at democratic convention and that has commented what's an interesting relationship between the obama camp and clinton camp inside the democratic party.
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now we've heard comments from bill clinton saying he's not sure if hillary clinton will run for president in 2016. clearly the clintons are keeping that door open, depending, obviously, what happens here in 2012 and where hillary clinton goes over the next four years. there's a lot at stake here, guys, in these human relationships between these players at this level. >> thank you very much. >> reporter: you bet. still to come, a major player in mutual fund calling for ben bernanke to step down. why robert rodriguez thinks big ben is doing more harm than good. bob...
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it's been costly to be bearish in this market but that's not stop first pacific adviser bob rodriguez who's been bearish since 2009, and still despite missing this big rally, he's getting even more negative. the three-time winning of morningstar fund manager of the year with $21 billion under management joins us now. good to see you. you are still sticking -- >> nice to see you. >> you're still sticking to this negative position. has it been painful and why are you still with it? >> actually, our funds are above
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where they were in 2007 because of the capital we deployed in '08, '09, during the height of the crisis. however, given the recent statements by the fed, i felt it was important that we comment on his qe3 and a commentary entitled "all in". >> and your comment is what? >> that it's excessive, it's dangerous and it's untested. and it will lead to unintended consequences. this open-end policy of the federal reserve. >> wow. dangerous is a big, big word. unintended consequences, we all get the concept. do you have any sense of what those unintended consequences might be? and i understand, it's a dumb question almost, right you? never know what they're going to be. >> you never know. i call them cancers. very much like prior to the last credit crisis. there were cancers developing in various areas of the credit market that were a function of unsound monetary policy in '03 but you didn't see it for several years. the same thing is happening with
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the fed's qe policy, particularly with this qe3, since it's forcing investors to make what i would call riskier decisions. you are seeing some of these elements, such as discussions, let's say, on friday about bond funds, extending and moving out in differences from their benchmarks. or in europe about money market funds having to move out and go down in credit. and even this morning, san jose talking about how they're going to increase alternative investments so as to try and increase the returns in this low return environment. >> that's what he wants. he wants everybody searching for yields so they put the money somewhere else. they put it to work. they buy a house. this is exactly what he's hoping for, isn't it? >> it's -- it's what he's hoping for. he's hoping for what he would call the wealth effect. and the wealth effect actually is, shall we say, a debatable point. we had a wealth effect out of the housing that led to
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excesses. so, i would argue that the fed is actually creating more issues down the road. and i can say something positive about it. it's giving the federal government an opportunity to get its house in order. very much like the integration of euro countries back in the last decade where -- >> it's josh. i'm just curious. first of all, i admire your conviction, 35% cash in the midst of a market meltup. i guess john talks about how he wants his investors to judge him over a full market cycle, understanding the fact he will trail in certain types of market environments. how do you feel about that? are you willing to forego-g a rally of this strength and breadth to ultimately be right and skate where the puck is, where you think it's going to be in 2013? >> absolutely. i've done it throughout my entire career. it's something i addressed in the commentary about that our clients and managers will be tested during this period of
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time. we are coming into the most critical year, i believe, in the last 80 years in 2013. and it's something i've spoken about -- >> that's a big, big statement. mike murphy? >> rob, i was in the same camp coming into qe3. i was hoping that the fed didn't do anything. i thought maybe we could see if we could try to go at it alone without the help of more quantitative easing. if you look back -- i guess there's no way of knowing this question, but i think ben had to -- and the fed had to act at that time, so you had qe1, qe2shgs now they see a need for qe3. in my thesis, as this wears off, the economy will be back on track and you will get real gdp up towards 3%. any -- is there anything that could happen where you could see real gdp growth, 3% range, and the training wheels could come off and we could get this growth, this recovery going? >> i still don't see it. as i argued earlier this year that we would be going into recessions in europe as well as japan and that china was
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slowing. and the international area was very much important to the growth. secondly, labor costs as well as lower interest rates have been key drivers in the profit recovery. those things may be tenuous at this stage of the game. i don't see a 3%-plus real gdp number. the cbo's real gdp base forecast through 2017 looks incredibly optimistic to me. >> bob, you turned around the market. we were having a positive day and now it's gone negative. >> see what you did. >> i don't know if it's you, but we're going to atrint it to your performance on "the fast money halftime report." thank you. >> thank you. bye-bye. >> the s&p is lower by more than two. industrials down by 23. the nasdaq lower by four. what happened? >> bob. >> it's that simple? >> blame it on bob. >> he has called two calamities.
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>> you should listen to what he has to say. i don't disagree with anything. my point is enjoy the ride while it can last because the market can go higher. the points he makes are excellent points. he makes them in a very intelligent way. ahead on "the halftime report," pain in spain causing problems for euro. [ male announcer ] the 2013 smart comes with 8 airbags, a crash management system and the world's only tridion safety cell
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geithner. now back to michelle and more on "the fast half". currency traders closely watching spain and greece in connection to the activity in the euro. joining us to discuss this and more, jen nordvig. good to have on you the phone today. mario draghi defending what he's doing when it comes to the euro and monetary policy over there. what do you think of that and what does it mean for the euro? >> well, i was in germany over the week he could. i thi i think he is getting more and more support. he has managed to reduce the tail risk in the system, no doubt about it, but the uncertainty is about when spain is actually going to apply for help. and that is taking longer than many were hoping for. >> that is the uncertainty. you have no doubt that they will. the uncertainty is about when. >> that's right. and i think they will eventually apply in the next one to two months. therefore, for my perspective,
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this is something that matters for short run of volatility but this issue is not the key driver of the long-term trend anymore. >> what is it? >> so, i think we moved to a situation where the funding crisis, the imminent funding crisis has been addressed, but now we have a growth crisis in europe. that's the key issue. and i think the recession in europe is spreading. for example, french growth is very, very weak now. and france is also into the recession. that's another example of the growth crisis getting worse. >> what's the trade right now? i understand the euro versus british pound for you. >> yes. for my perspective we have traded up to 130 in euro/dollar so i think it's time to trade the euro from the short side but i don't think euro/dollar is the right way to do it. i think euro crisis is the best way so we have been trading euro versus emerging market and i think euro/sterling is a good trade. if you can trade around 80 for a
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move down to 77, i think that's a decent risk/reward. >> levels 80 down to 77. thank you so much, jens. good to have you. let's have the biggest pops and drops in midday trading 37 red hat. >> lennox software and a big miss, not as bad as tesla but an ugly miss. stock trading down $1.85. i wouldn't touch it until it gets around $53 a chair. >> deckers down 5%. >> stern ag lowered their numbers. the shorts are cleaning up in this name. the only good interest, made short-term long side but long-term it continues lower. >> carnival corporation, a pop of 2%. >> good earnings. the pop was much more earlier. gapd up to 39. it's given up half of how it hoped. there's a lot of resistance here in the low 40s so i would probably lay off. >> and a drop in w weatherford.
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>> there was talk the switzerland government was going to find them and it rolled over. if you look at the setup, sitting on 100-day moving average. if you like the name, think froe tight stop. otherwise, stay away. >> a drop for the nfl. you didn't think we were going to got whole show without talking about this, did you? things went from bad to worse during monday night's football. the replacement refs committed their worst faux pas yet as they committed their worst fumble of the game. touchdown or interception? >> intercept eggs. >> nobody seemed to know. >> yes, we do. >> nfl released the statement upholding the call, dr. j. many see it otherwise. >> the only people that saw it otherwise were seattle fans. i didn't have a dog in that hunt. i hate the green bay packers but that was an interception, not a catch. and that should have been called that way, absolutely. this is as bad as the regulators
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here in our country, michelle, not addressing high-frequency trading. the nfl's getting all kinds of bad press about this. they need to solve this. >> hey, john, how much -- >> now. >> how much are they saving on referee costs versus -- >> 20 million. >> how much potential value could be destroyed by people turning off the tv? >> people aren't going to turn off the tv. you and i know that, josh. but nonetheless this is a black eye for the nfl. those 13 penalties from the sunday night game between new england and the ravens were also an nfl record and another black eye. so if they don't do something about this, it will affect the value of their franchise. >> you are a former famous football player, why don't you go be a ref? aren't you allowed? >> because they want people that really know what's going on, michelle. but i do know the difference between a catch, an interception and golden tate grabbing the guy that made the interception. so that was a terrible call. >> doc, not to mention the fact that golden tate almost took off the guy's head, the other d-back in front of him when he pushed
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him out of the way before the ball came down to him and jennings went over his head and picked it off. >> i agree. >> guy, you will be shocked to hear, accident see the game. no doubt watching some movie with subtitles. >> it was the opera, actually. >> of course. it did have subtitles. still to come, our traders are fast, but they are not furious and they are not always right. a trade that's gone off course, next on the "halftime report."
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welcome back to the "halftime report." i'm seema mody. walking casino stock ahead of the golden week in china, we see increased gambling activity in m macao. the gaming market will expand a rebound in growth. >> thank you. our dr. j, some people think you work in a casino, trade the casinos for us? >> i like moving the odds into my favor, michelle, i think your odd russ in your favor, looking at something like wynn, ahead of what seema mentioned. there will be money flooding into these guys and look at lvs at these levels. >> the golden week holiday, everybody goes on vacation, at place fills up. anybody else trading casinos? >> i like the equipment side, a
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little bit more interesting than the three main publicly traded resorts. so shuffle master, shfl, chart looks good, fundamentally, the company has grown and sell to those guys. >> las vegas sands a note out from one of their larger shareholders, broke the company up, could be worth $85 a share. i don't know it gets 85 but a breakup would unlock value in lvs. >> we had that guy on the show last night there you go. >> so you can't miss a minute. >> can't miss a minute. >> in power lunch, after the monday night referee melt down, is the nfl brand in trouble? find out what a former player, now business owner, has to say. first though, final tracedes, o the "halftime report." [ man ] not only that,
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